Normal Form Backward Induction for Decision Trees with Coherent Lower Previsions

We examine normal form solutions of decision trees under typical choice functions induced by lower previsions. For large trees, finding such solutions is hard as very many strategies must be considered. In an earlier paper, we extended backward induction to arbitrary choice functions, yielding far more efficient solutions, and we identified simple necessary and sufficient conditions for this to work. In this paper, we show that backward induction works for maximality and E-admissibility, but not for interval dominance and Gamma-maximin. We also show that, in some situations, a computationally cheap approximation of a choice function can be used, even if the approximation violates the conditions for backward induction; for instance, interval dominance with backward induction will yield at least all maximal normal form solutions

Robust decision analysis under severe uncertainty and ambiguous tradeoffs: an invasive species case study

Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous

A geometric and game-theoretic study of the conjunction of possibility measures

In this paper, we study the conjunction of possibility measures when they are interpreted as coherent upper probabilities, that is, as upper bounds for some set of probability measures. We identify conditions under which the minimum of two possibility measures remains a possibility measure. We provide graphical way to check these conditions, by means of a zero-sum game formulation of the problem. This also gives us a nice way to adjust the initial possibility measures so their minimum is guaranteed to be a possibility measure. Finally, we identify conditions under which the minimum of two possibility measures is a coherent upper probability, or in other words, conditions under which the minimum of two possibility measures is an exact upper bound for the intersection of the credal sets of those two possibility measures

Uncertainty Quantification in Lasso-Type Regularization Problems

Regularization techniques, which sit at the interface of statistical modeling and machine learning, are often used in the engineering or other applied sciences to tackle high dimensional regression (type) problems. While a number of regularization methods are commonly used, the 'Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator' or simply LASSO is popular because of its efficient variable selection property. This property of the LASSO helps to deal with problems where the number of predictors is larger than the total number of observations, as it shrinks the coefficients of non-important parameters to zero. In this chapter, both frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the LASSO are discussed, with particular attention to the problem of uncertainty quantification of regression parameters. For the frequentist approach, we discuss a refit technique as well as the classical bootstrap method, and for the Bayesian method, we make use of the equivalent LASSO formulation using a Laplace prior on the model parameters

Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for Γ-maximin, Γ-maximax and interval dominance

Γ-maximin, Γ-maximax and interval dominance are familiar decision criteria for making decisions under severe uncertainty, when probability distributions can only be partially identified. One can apply these three criteria by solving sequences of linear programs. In this study, we present new algorithms for these criteria and compare their performance to existing standard algorithms. Specifically, we use efficient ways, based on previous work, to find common initial feasible points for these algorithms. Exploiting these initial feasible points, we develop early stopping criteria to determine whether gambles are either Γ-maximin, Γ-maximax and interval dominant. We observe that the primal-dual interior point method benefits considerably from these improvements. In our simulation, we find that our proposed algorithms outperform the standard algorithms when the size of the domain of lower previsions is less or equal to the sizes of decisions and outcomes. However, our proposed algorithms do not outperform the standard algorithms in the case that the size of the domain of lower previsions is much larger than the sizes of decisions and outcomes

Data Analysis and Robust Modelling of the Impact of Renewable Generation on Long Term Security of Supply and Demand

This paper studies rigorous statistical techniques for modelling long term reliability of demand and supply of electrical power given uncertain variability in the generation and availability of wind power and conventional generation. In doing so, we take care to validate statistical assumptions, using historical observations, as well as our intuition about the actual underlying real-world statistical process. Where assumptions could not be easily validated, we say so explicitly. In particular, we aim to improve existing statistical models through sensitivity analysis of ill-known parameters: we propose models for wind power and conventional generation, estimate their parameters from historical wind power data and conventional availability data, and finally combine them with historical demand data to build a full robust joint time-dependent model of energy not served. Bounds on some useful indices from this model are then calculated, such as expected energy not served, and expected number of continuous outage periods-the latter cannot be estimated from a purely time collapsed model because time collapsed models necessarily do not model correlations across time. We compare our careful model with a naive model that ignores deviations from normality, and find that this results in substantial differences: in this specific study, the naive model overestimates the risk roughly by a factor 2. This justifies the care and caution by which model assumptions must be verified, and the effort that must be taken to adapt the model accordingly

Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability

In the UK betting market, bookmakers often offer a free coupon to new customers. These free coupons allow the customer to place extra bets, at lower risk, in combination with the usual betting odds. We are interested in whether a customer can exploit these free coupons in order to make a sure gain, and if so, how the customer can achieve this. To answer this question, we evaluate the odds and free coupons as a set of desirable gambles for the bookmaker. We show that we can use the Choquet integral to check whether this set of desirable gambles incurs sure loss for the bookmaker, and hence, results in a sure gain for the customer. In the latter case, we also show how a customer can determine the combination of bets that make the best possible gain, based on complementary slackness. As an illustration, we look at some actual betting odds in the market and find that, without free coupons, the set of desirable gambles derived from those odds avoids sure loss. However, with free coupons, we identify some combinations of bets that customers could place in order to make a guaranteed gain

Model checking for imprecise Markov chains.

We extend probabilistic computational tree logic for expressing properties of Markov chains to imprecise Markov chains, and provide an efficient algorithm for model checking of imprecise Markov chains. Thereby, we provide a formal framework to answer a very wide range of questions about imprecise Markov chains, in a systematic and computationally efficient way